Off to a Flyer? Day One of the Cheltenham Festival

Anybody who followed this blog back when it was a direct email last season would remember I managed a pretty good return with winners like Sizing Europe, Alberta's Run,Big Zeb, Poker Di Sivola, Imperial Commander, Baby Run and Big Bucks so that must mean I'm due a rotten year this season and should be avoided like the plague now. Over the next few days I'll be trying unearth a few winners and put them down on paper for you to laugh at and abuse. Feel free to interact either through this blog, the John Mulholland Facebook page or the John Mulholland twitter page. If you make plenty of money from my tips feel free to send a cheque signed out to helper blogger. Much appreciated

This season's racing is the 100th year of the festival and looks so wide open I suspect we may see one winner reach the 100/1 price so don't be afraid of the outsiders. The big race on day one is the champion hurdle and if somebody put a gun to my head and asked for the winner, I'd probably end up dead. Won't stop me giving it a go though.

Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y

Like so many of this years races, formlines are thin on the ground due to a harsh winter.Binocular was due to be favourite and I was very keen to take him on at the prices but I guess that's one less horse to worry about,Peddlers Cross has had an interrupted schedule, Menorah has not been seen since early December and the stats say horses should run at least once in the year of the festival, Khyber Kim has had only one run and was more rotten than last weeks milk and from what and Mille Chief have shown would struggle to suggest he can win. Oscar Whisky could be anything and wouldn't put off any of his backers as he really could be top drawer, though he could like one of those drawer's men have with old wasted batteries in it.

Hurricane Fly has beaten all that has been put in front of him this season and after beating Solwhit four times punters are starting to suggest that maybe Solwhit is no longer a good yardstick. I would disagree, he is a top class horse who has shown it against every other horse bar Hurricane Fly. Hurricane Fly may have had some slower run races back in Ireland and is yet to run on British soil but if he can overcome that, he will win. (Paddy Mullin promised his classmates he'd walk around campus in only flip flops and speedos if he lost) . He has ridden both Hurricane Fly and Menorah and sees it a two horse race between the two.
Trying to work out the race, we must examine the pace. Peddlers Cross & will make it a tough battle all the way to the line. Oscar Whiskey and Menorah will travel well and it's not forlorn to expect 5 in a line coming around the final bend and then it's all about who is best on the day. Hurricane Fly has won 8 grade ones and they were not soft races. This is an all star cast and even Khyber Kim or the forgotten Dunguib could get in the shakedown but at the prices Hurricane Fly is a no brainer as he didn't win 8 soft grade 1's and the UK bookies are clearly underrating him. I would of preferred Paul Townsend as jockey but hey why not let Ruby Walsh win his first ever champion hurdle after all the injuries in the last year.

VERDICT: Hurricane Fly

Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m

Not a race I hold a strong opinion, perhaps that could be said of a few races this season thanks to the cotton wool approach from most trainers. One stat that appears constant in this race is it's a poor one for favourites with only Azertyuiop winning since 1997 but in the same time frame only one horse bigger than 10-1 has won it also so it's best to concentrate at the top of the market. Ghiazo has done nothing wrong beating Captain Chris here at Cheltenham by 10 lengths and again by 4&1/2 lengths in Newbury. On the formbook there really is nothing to suggest Captain Chris can turn the tables. Best rated over hurdles and that's another high stat for finding the winner is Medermit, another of conqueror of Captain Chris. He was beaten at Cheltenham by Hells Bay(entered in RSA chase) but was a little unlucky that day and hard to see out of the first 3. At the prices Ghiazo looks the most obvious choice and anything that beats him will likely win.

VERDICT: Ghiazo

Stan James Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y

The record of Cheltenham bumper winners is shocking and while Cue Card looked every bit as good as Dunguib we all know what happened to that one's Supreme challenge a year ago

As with Dunguib, there had been talk of going for the Champion Hurdle and only for his defeat at Cheltenham by Menorah, he would probably would be going there or would be odds on here. He is rated about 11 pounds superior to anything else in the race and may prove a much better bet than Dunguib did 12 months ago. Joe Tizzard is very bullish, my only concerns are lack of a run and perhaps he may pull to hard early and not settle.

Dunraven Storm has twice finished behind Cue Card and has been kept away since a disappointing run at Haydock where he appeared to be injured. Perhaps he injured himself that day in his loss to Cur Card as he was challenging until clobbering the hurdle 2 out. Whats most interesting with this runner is that Hobbs has only declared him here while many suggested he'd be upped in trip to the Neptunes Novice Hurdle. Take the hint and go each way at a huge price. He was 50/1 a few weeks ago but he's still value each way.

He also put the Totesport trophy winner and recent talked about horse Reccession Proof in his box earlier in the season. Why take 8/1 on one horse while you can get 28/1 on the other.

Nicky Henderson can usually be relied on to have a major contender in this race and although he hasn't won it as often as the markets have suggested, he must really fancy his chances this year promising Sprinter Sacre ,Sprint Son ,and unbeaten Gibb River in the line-up.

Spirit Son looks the stable's number one and he goes into the race with a faultless record, having won a Listed hurdle in France on his debut and impressing with the manner of his victories on two very different tracks at Huntingdon and Exeter although in time it is expected Sprinter Sacre will be the stable star, maybe he just isn't ready for it yet.

In Ireland Zaidpour looked to be a real star in the early season but his form has tailed off. Perhaps the better ground could revive his fortunes. Al Ferof is another who can lay it down and his fall at Cheltenham when he has the race at his mercy just makes me wonder could we have another Noland opening victory for Ruby Walsh

VERDICT: Dunraven Storm each way

Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase Grade 3 Cl1 3m110y

At the Cheltenham Preview night Anthony Bromley was very sweet on Bensalem. He rates Alan King's horse to be about a stone better than he is rated. You must take into account that Alan King's horses have been under a cloud for over a season and now they have emerged from that poor form. When that happens, all his horses who have been running poorly suddenly are well treated by the handicapper. Bensalem has also not run over fences since falling in this race last year when traveling well. He has run twice this season over hurdles and acquitted himself very well. This means the handicapper hasn't been able to reassess his chase form and stick his weight up any more so he gets in off 11 stone. That is technically a few pounds too much on the stats but if he really is a stone better, then he is more than capable of defying it and while a boring selection, he is the bet of the race especially with Blazing Bailey high in the weights to ensure he doesn't go up more than 2 pounds.

Of the others, 6 extra pounds might not stop Chief Dan George retaining the race and while they may win Sunnyhillboy, Reve De Sivola & Great Endeavour look about the right price in the market and none jump out as exceptional value. At an outside price Adams Island might come into the equation. While I cannot see any value left in the race at this stage, on the form book Sunnyhillboy should beat Great Endeavour getting lumps of weight compared to last season's Byrne's Plate but I just can't get away from Alan King's potential in handicaps this season and while boring to tip a favourite, I must back the most likely winner.

VERDICT: Bensalem

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) Cl2 3m7f

While some people see this as some kind of novelty bet and head for the bar, I must confess I love these races. Partly because it's great to see certain excellent jumping horses, who would probably be a little short of speed excel in this domain. I backed Spotthedifference blind for a few seasons to an enjoyable profit and moved over to Garde Champetre soon after. One of the most disappointing results last season was Garde Champetre
(didn't even finish in the first 4 to stop my placepot). Nina got badly hampered coming around a bend on the figure of eight course and just couldn't make up the ground. Another defeat in November and suddenly she is a very backable price at 9/2. Yes she's giving weight to everybody else but she's done that countless times before. Weight is not the deterrent it is in other races. L'ami only gets a pound off and that simply is nowhere near enough to beat Garde Champetre. What is most needed though is course experience. Horses simply cannot win first time out on the cross country circuit. The best any horse managed first time out is Maljimar
a 3 length 3rd to Garde Champeter in December 09. Nick Williams horse missed the cross country last season in favour at a tilt at the National. Lets not forget how close Maljimar was to winning the William Hill Chase at the festival a few seasons ago so he clearly loves the track

As much as the heart love Garde Champetre the head says Maljimar is the each way steal in the race.

VERDICT: Maljimar

David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle Grade 2

Very hard to oppose Quevega even at the prices. She has won this 2 years in a row and last year on her seasonal bow. Nothing else in the race looks good enough to beat her even though Sparky May has looked decent in races this season I don't think her defeat of Carole's Legacy is strong enough form if Quevega is still as good as the last two seasons. At the prices L'accordioniste appeals most each way as she won when Twiston Davis stable would normally be in a mid season lull and may be much better stepping up in trip and should come in the first 3 either way.

VERDICT:L'accordioniste each way

Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y

At our preview night Paul Kealy put up Definity as his bet of the festival. Paul Nicholls has also said he this is his handicap bet of the week but no offense to Paul Nicholls, he's no better a tipster than an some eegit in Mulhollands. Too often he gets it completely wrong and while I won't say he attempts to people away, If you took his word on each horse at face value, I don't think you'd be showing a profit over the last few seasons. I do however thing he could win this race, just not with Definity, American Trilogy won the county hurdle a few seasons back and went straight in the notebook as a potential handicap chase winner. We know he loves Cheltenham and his previous run behind Captain Chris is best overlooked at face value. His form going into the county hurdle was also rubbish and he looks the best bet at a decent price in the race.

VERDICT: American Trilogy



Selections:
1:30 Dunraven Storm ew
2:05 Ghiazo
2:40 Bensalem
3:20 Hurricane Fly (nap)
4:00 Maljimar
4:40 L'accordioniste each way
5:15 American Trilogy


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We will have Enhanced odds every day, starting at 11:00am where we will go top industry price on selected horses and cashback offers and much much more. A quick whisper to the readers of this blog, If you fancy Cue Card, be in a John Mulholland shop at Lunchtime, that's all I'm saying!

Happy Punting
Kevin Breslin