Champions League They are going to need a lot of luck and catch the right breaks and get those important decisions by the ref. I'm referring to Barcelona not Man Utd by the way. While the whole world cannot see any way that United can win, the maxim to profit in this game in the long run is to know when to go against the crowd and when to join the masses.
I have been unimpressed with Barcelona this season. Yes they blew Real Madrid away 5-0 but that was in October and so far in the group stages of the Champions League they have certainly got the breaks and the decisions. Arsenal had them on the ropes until the inexplicable sending off for Van Persie. Real Madrid too were holding their own until they're sending off and had a goal wrongly disallowed in the return leg that could have changed the Denmark of the match.
Barcelona have the best players in the world, no doubt. Messi is the best player of this decade, Xavi and Inesta on paper will toy with Giggs and Carrick, David Villa while not yet doing it for Barcelona has been the most exciting striker at the last two major international tournaments and scores the big goals. Where can United win? United were stuffed 2-0 in 2009 and that United team was supposedly superior and this Barcelona team is better than the 2009 version.
Well for starters, it's at Wembley, and United will have a virtual home crowd(most of their fans are apparently from London). Ferguson has out smarted every other manager this season, why not Pep as well. Barcelona have a weakness that few have managed to exploit that I can see united having a field day with. Dan Alaves is a forward pushing right back. As the team goes forward, he goes forward, TOO Forward. They also have problems down the left back spot with Abidal just back from liver tumour. Few teams have been able to exploit this bar Arsenal this season. United will have done their homework and expect every time they have the ball to attack at speed down that both flank. If United are too win this match, one man will have to be at the top of his game. Nani started the season as United's best player but has gone into the shadows as each player has taken it in turns to emerge as their star man.Berbatov, Rooney and now Hernadez have lite up the stage at different parts of the season. Nani though possesses the skills needed to unlock this Barcelona team and if they are to win, I see him as the man that will do it. He may not even start with Fergie possibly favouring Park and Valencia so perhaps wait for the team sheet to come out but if he gets the green light which I believe he should have a nibble
Value Bet: Nani to be man of the match.
Man United are around 11-4 to win the match and while some will sneer and others will think it a great price, I'd be slightly on the latter but I think I've unearthed an even better bet. United to score 2 or more goals is also 11/4. Now that means the only result of United winning and you losing would be if United won 1-0(7-1). That is an unlikely occurrence in my humble opinion and not reflective of the true odds. Yes Fergie could set his team to play 10 men behind the ball and counter but that would most likely result in his team getting cut down eventually and I cannot see United trying to hold onto a 1-0 lead for dear life.
If we remove that permutation or perhaps have a small saver on 1-0, backing United to score 2 or more at 11/4 allows us to collect on any other win, 2-2 draw or loss. If United score 2 and still lose then fair enough, Barcelona are superstars and we've still collected on our bet. Only Arsenal have scored two goals against Barcelona this season hence the big price but as Ive stated, United will attack and exploit that gap better than Arsenal can and as long as the ref doesn't start giving Barca all the decisions again, United will either win or go down in a ball of flames.
Bet: Man United to score 2 or more goals at 11/4
GAA-Armagh v Down
Onto the GAA this weekend. Last week our value bet Leitrim copped at 5/1 slaying local rivals Sligo
Armagh V Down
I have been looking forward to this game since the draw was made and then the Ulster Council go and do something so stupid as to go up against the Champions League final refusing to change the time through sheer pigheadedness. How fantastic would this line up be of telly
3:00 Armagh V Down
5:05 Munster v Leinster
7:45 Man Utd v Barcelona
But no instead us coach potatoes will have to either pull in the telly form the kitchen or get flicking but then again the Ulster council don't care about us. It's naive to think though that supporters don't want to watch both an will instead in these economic times sit at home and watch both. Onwards to the winner.
Down, All Ireland runners up come to Armagh as favourites for the first time since the early nineties. Let us not forget that no team other that Armagh or Tyrone have won the Anglo Celtic cup since 1998. Armagh have been in the doldrums but this is the season I see their reemergence. There has been talk of fallouts after their defeat to Kildare in the league but this is just the type of match to start their season and I'd take them to win the battle at the prices.
Verdict: Armagh to win at 11/8
Magner's Celtic League Final
Last week's comeback was simply a joy to watch and now Leinster go for an unprecedented double. The reason why they are so closely matched in the betting is
1. Have Leinster been on the lock since Saturday?-Possibly
2. Are Leinster too battered and bruised to go for another high intensity game?- Again yes that is possible but they have the squad to go and some don't have too much mileage on the clock
3. Munster are at home, that's a huge advantage- Home advantage in rugby seems to be bigger than any other sport but it didn't help Leinster last season at the Ospreys
4. Munster are just as good as Leinster- no chance, the gulf in class has widened with each season. Leinster won 6 in a row going into the last meeting. Munster needed that win badly,
Leinster did not.The match could go either way based on these assumptions but again at the prices I'll buy into sheer class against dour toughness. Munster needed fresh blood two seasons ago and it still hasn't emerged. They are getting better at the back but they are still just not good enough against Leinster to justify 6/5
Verdict: Leinster to win at 8/11
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