We've been starving most weeks with only Armagh v Derry last week and very few high profile battles so far in the championship year but it all explodes into life this weekend with 4 provincial semi finals and 8 1st round qualifiers.
Saturday-Prices Here
13:30 London vs Fermanagh
Our twelve match feast begins in Ruislip with London taking on Fermanagh. One naive bookmaker chalked up an initial 11/2 on London and will hoping against any surpises here. Fermanagh were hopeless against Derry while London put it up to a hopeless Mayo team losing narrowly in extra time. Fermanagh may have won the league match by 6 point in April but London have since drafted in more players and can cause the first big shock of the weekend.The Exiles have not won in the championship for 34 years but stat could be dead by Saturday afternoon.
Verdict :London
14:00 Antrim vs Westmeath
A very open match on paper and I must admit Wexford's annihilation of Westmeath caught me by surprise and manager Pat Flanagan has perhaps hit the panic button by calling in a raft of u-21 players. Aintrim haven't kicked a ball since that defeat to Donegal. They have a nice double header to boost the attendance with the hurling against Carlow on afterwards and the 4/5 may not last before Saturday. I see Aintrim winning by 3 or more.
Verdict Aintrim
15:00 Clare vs Down
Danny Hughes has been ruled out for Down but that should pose no problems and this is just the tie Down would of wanted to build up confidence after that defeat by Armagh. The spread looks about right as I see them winning by 6 or 7 points without coming off the bridle.
17:00 Cavan vs Longford
Home advantage once again for Cavan but will it bear as little fruit as last time. Many of Cavan's players made their championship debuts against Donegal and perhaps with a quick enough turnaround they'll catch up to the pace here. Longford go into this as favourites based on their unlucky defeat to Laois and Division 4 title and this match has a derby element. Cavan have a few injury doubts including their up and coming star Fergal Flanagan and if he misses out Longford look the bet.
Verdict: Longford
19:00 Louth vs Meath
The Televised game on Saturday and Meath have been in purgatory since that "goal" in last season's Leinster final. They need to throw this game to Louth just to repent to our Lord for stealing that title off poor little Louth. Carlow's win for me was the biggest shock of the championship; Much more so than Leitrim beating Sligo i.e I backed Leitrim and I backedLouth. To lose to Carlow is like Andy Roddick getting caught out by Conor Niland and I wonder can they come back from it so soon. This hype and grudge factor has been overblown and the prices should be closer to Meath 2/7 and Louth 3/1. For that reason Meath have to be the bet and don't forget this match is in Breffni park not in Louth.
Verdict Meath
17:00 Wicklow vs Sligo
Sligo have had to wait a long time to get over that Leitrim defeat and lose here and it's off on holidays already. They can delay the booking for one more week though as they should have enough to get it done here.
Verdict Sligo
19:00 Offaly vs Monaghan
This is the first time they have met in the championship and its really a game I'd leave alone from a punting point of play. |Monghan looked good in stages aganist Tyrone and while many big hitters will be licking their lips at 4/9 I'd like to see more of this new look side before diving in.
19:00 Laois vs Tipperary
Tipp won this last year by a solitary point but home advantage sees Laois go off a prohibitive 4/11 and while should win the handicap of -3 doesn't appeal hugely.
Sunday-Prices Here
14:00 Carlow vs Wexford
The only non televised game on the Sunday and I think we'll leave it parked and move onto the big match in Connacht.
14:00 Mayo vs Galway
This may only be the semi final stage but both sides will be treating it like their cup final. Its highly unlikely either side will be challenging in September and in fact most sides from Down, Armagh, Meath, and the losers from Dublin-Kildare and Donegal-Tyrone will be more than happy to go through either of these sides in the qualifers. Mayo were abyssal against London and many believe that shock will have awaken the Westerners for their great rivals. Mayo won easily in the league campaign and have won the last two meetings in Castlebar in the championship but for the life of me I cannot get past a Galway win here. These matches are always notoriously close and the canny punter will side with either side winning the match by 1-3 points at around 10/11 but I'll be greedy and go straight in for the odds against Galway too.
John Mulholland have two employees playing for Galway in Paul Conroy and goalkeeper Adrian Faherty. We've piled the pressure on them by promising money back to all our customers if either Paul scores a goal or Adrian saves a Penalty. No pressure lads!
Verdict: Galway
Winning margin to be by 1-3 points by either side 10/11
16:00 Dublin vs Kildare
Once the western battle is over, we turn our attention to Croke Park for Dublin v Kildare and I cannot wait for this one. Kildare have done it all so easy so far while Dublin have yet to catch light. Dublin's implosion against Cork in the league final will not escape my cranium. It would once again be no harm to Dublin if the lost here as a final against Wexford will not have them hitting the ground running in the 1/4 final stages. At the prices I can see Kildare winning against Dublin for the first time since 2000 in the championship and I'll look to back them in the handicap market just to play it safe.
Verdict: Kildare +2
15:30 Donegal vs Tyrone
In 2007 Donegal was on a high; league champions, then then beat their bogey side Armagh in the first round. They came to meet Tyrone in a Ulster Semi final with serious hope of winning their first title since 1992 but came crashing back to earth with an 11 point hammering. Confidence once again is rising in the hills and the market has been backing Donegal throughout. Tyrone didn't pull away from Monaghan by any stretch but I don't buy this new Donegal puke football tag. Only Cork know how to blow Tyrone away and that's by having men over 6 foot running all over them from deep. Donegal have never been known for height and even with a nastier streak they'll struggle to overcome Mickey Harte's me especially if Michael Murphy loses the appeal.
Verdict: Tyrone
No comments:
Post a Comment