With Tiger Woods becoming the first American to skip Sandwich this week is all about one man, Rory McIlroy. Winning his first major by the lowest card ever shot at the US Open it's now all a case of Tiger who as we welcome the arrival of a new golfing superstar.
Is he a banker or a blowout?
Well he has only won 3 tournaments while Tiger had 30 under his belt at this stage. He had yet to show he can handle a Sunday in the frame with golfers breathing down his neck. He now has to cope with the favourite tag as well.
On the plus side, he has the best golf swing in the world, is the best links player and has lead in each of the last 4 majors and in truth would have won last season's British Open only for the freak weather on Friday that he endured while winner Oosthuzien escaped. He has shown such resilance to cope with his Augusta meltdown in the very next tournament and the likelyhood is no such meltdown should transpire again.
Hype is a horrid thing for bettors to gauge as it usually means we have to take shorter prices about horses, golfers, football teams etc based not on what they have shown but on what they "could" show. As I said, Rory was never in danger in the US Open. He led by 8 shots on Sunday while a 4 shot lead at Augusta wasn't that big a buffer once he bogeyed the first and Charl Schwartzel birdied it and in Malaysia the week after he again had amble opportunity to win but fell short in the closing stages. His other big win was in Quail Hollow where he won with a Sunday 62 winning from a position of no pressure.
Will Rory handle the pressure if he is around the front of the pack with no buffer on Sunday. Is a single figure price any value.?
Well at 8/1 right now I'd say he is value right now with 7 places out there. If he is one shot ahead on Sunday and is 4/6, then I'd consider that a bad price but of course he might just blitz the field again.
Right now he's a bet and I'm more inclined to side with him over any other player in the top 6 in the betting. Luke Donald may have won the Scottish Open but after backing him for the US Open I'm deserting him this time.
Who else can win?
Oh about 80 other players and lets not forget 400-1 outsider Ben Curtis won this in 2003 having never played a links course before so expect surprises. Anthony Kim is again a huge price and could go close at a huge price. When did you ever see Phil Mickelson go off 45-1 for any tournament. His closest form in the Open was in 2004 when he was playing super human but all the same he looks overpriced. Charl Schwartzel is starting to look like another specialist and again looks way overpriced at 55/1.Both Sergio and Padraig are starting to show form and could enter calculations this week as well but right now I'd advise one and only bet.
Back Rory McIlroy at 8/1
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