Rugby World Cup Preview 2011

It's time for the Rugby World Cup down in New Zealand and with the matches on so early it should be sponsored by Kelloggs. Not great news for us bookmakers as our shops will be still closed when most matches are under way but John Mulholland has cooked up the best offer in either the Northern or Southern Hemisphere with our cashback offer for the group stages.

Money back on the handicap markets if it lands on on the tie. A handicap push on all 40 Group stage matches. And with the precision of rugby handicap markets, you can be sure of a few landing dead on the bullseye. Of course backers of the handicap tie itself can still do so. Thats the marketing spiel out of the way so onto how to make money from the tournament.


Optimism is thin on the ground in Ireland after a few lacklustre tests against Scotland ,France and England but there are reasons to be optimistic and the greatest route to profit in betting is to go against the crowd when the prices are in your favour.

5 Reasons why Ireland can do better than expected in this World Cup

1. Although victory was not obtained, I was hugely impressed in the Scotland game by the defensive stand Ireland put up to Scotland. Only a late try when Ireland had made a raft of changes won the day for Scotland in a game they played a first side against an experimental Irish side. Scotland are no mugs and that was stronger form than most will give credit.

2. The first game especially in France, Ireland showed they are in such a better place versus 2007 warm up. These players needed to get upto match speed and were one or two loose passes away from victory. It's much better to be making those mistakes now than even against USA in match one. Donnacha O Callaghan stated they were holding back and while some will scoff, the player will not peak in 4 warm up matches, they won't even peak in USA match, they need to peak against either Australia or Italy.

3. The exclusion of Luke Fitzgerald and Thomas O Leary. It's amazing to think of two Lions players in 2009 not even making the 30 man panel two years later but their form was not there and Kidney dropped them accordingly. That is the signs of gutsy coach and there is no way in hell Eddie O Sullivan would have made that call. Peter Stringer & John Hayes would still be in his squad.

4. They are a really talented bunch. Stating the obvious? Well some have already forgotten the heights of 2009. Ferris is a risk and he may never play as good as that season but when you see a backline of Sean O Brien and Jamie Heaslip at full capacity which I believe they will reach come the match against Italy, the makings of a team to get to a semi final is there. I won't be disappointed if they don't beat Australia as long as they dont lose any more to injury. They need to have two big performances in this World Cup and the Australia match is not one of them. Peak against Italy and peak in quarter final against perhaps South Africa and this Irish side will have progressed further than any other Irish side.

5. The Curse of Tv3. Hallelujah that we will not have to see Matt Cooper's mug this year. Don't ask me to explain it but we all know once the national side of either soccer or rugby are televised on TV3, it all goes to pot. RWC 2007 was horrendous and the 5-2 defeat to Cyprus in the football proves the curse is real. Thankfully we'll be subjected to Brent and Hookey for the duration of the tournament.


Best Bets of the tournament:

If you're investing for instance a €100 bank here is how I'd invest it over the tournament outright markets

€60 Australia at 10/11 to reach Final
€20 Ireland to Reach Semi Finals @ 5/2
€15 Australia to win Rugby World Cup @7/2
€5 South Africa to be eliminated at the group stages 50/1

We have already seen a few large wagers in John Mulholland at odds on. One punter got involved a few months ago at 8/11 for €11,000 and we are braced for plenty more money buyers at 4/6. They are deserved favourites but on home soil the pressure will be enormous and they have to prove they can handle that. It's probably a good thing France is in their group as they have not beaten France in the group stages since the inaugural win in 1987 in the final. This way, they won't meet France again until the final if both progress that far.

For my money, I'd rather get involved in Australia. They are second best in the world but they wear the T-Shirt of pressure much better. They're brand of rugby is exciting and while defeats to Samoa and England may scare some, their first XV is the biggest match to New Zealand. Backing them at 10/11 to reach the final rather than 4/6 New Zealand is a much better bet in my humble opinion. I'd also have a smaller wager on them to win the whole thing. Pressure will be immense on New Zealand and if it goes to plan, Australia's route to the final of Wales-England is an easier route than New Zeland's Scotland-South Africa.


Ireland play USA on the 10th anniversary of September the 11th. Throw in the fact Eddie O Sullivan in in the opposite dugout and the gods could point to an upset for Eddies Eagles. In Truth it's hard to make a case for backing USA on a handicap of even 36+ points. USA have not shown any form which suggests they could get close. USA scared England in 2007 and even though emotions will run high, I cannot make a case for a shock.

Ireland will see beating Australia as a a safe route to the semi finals. They won't win however but will run them close again. Italy will be the decider and don't forget Italy should have beaten Ireland in the six nations before beating France. They haven't picked up the baton this summer though with a lacklustre victory over Japan to their name. Ireland will be ready to front up by the final match and will overcome their first important test where they will expect to meet either Wales, Samoa or South Africa in the quarter finals. I will make a case for why it may not be South Africa but even if it is, this South Africa side have gone backwards since 2007 and Ireland are ideally suited to beating them. Man for man and contrast of styles could see us prevail and reach our first Semi final.


Here's a mad outsider bet. South Africa to fail to reach the 1/4 finals. They are in the group of death with Wales and Samoa and many are thinking that Wales could get caught out again by a pacific islander team. It very well could happen and Samoa could have a huge World Cup having shocked Australia this season. Where it could go wrong for South Africa is the style of play of both Wales and Samoa and the way the fixtures fall. Meeting Wales first up causes problems because whoever loses this match is suddenly in danger of elimination. Wales will run at South Africa all day and gaps will open up. South Africa have regressed under Peter De Villies and his decision to wrap the first XV in cotton wool for most of the Tri Nations could blow up in his face. He over trained them last season and now he could have under trained them this season. South Africa won in 2007 but only after a scare in the quarters to Fiji and while they should still have enough for both Samoa & Wales 50/1 is worth the risk to find out