Before I dive into trying to help you make some money over the four days of Cheltenham, let me hit you with the marketing spiel John Mulholland's has lined up for the week. The big offer in shops and over the telebetting(you can also avail on our online partners Betpack.com for the opening day) is the Ruby Refund. John has pledged to refund second placed horses at the Cheltenham festival behind Ruby Walsh, the 1/2 favourite for top jockey. He will ride horses like Vautour, Champagne Fever, Hurricane Fly and Quevaga. That’s just his opening day mounts so make sure to get the value with the Better Bettor. Also you can get your head in front every day before the racing even starts by picking up a copy of the Irish Daily Star or the Irish Sun which contain free €5 bets that can be used in any John Mulholland office. If you prefer to bet over the phone, John Mulholland is offering all new account holders a free matched bet upto €25. You can lodge and withdraw through any shop so no need to a credit card if you wish. More details at 1850 722 722. Now onto the racing itself
Tuesday Racing preview
The Supreme Novice Hurdle gets the festival under way but it’s not a race to lose you trousers on with some expensive favourites faltering over the years. Irving fits that profile of another strong travelling horse that could get outstayed up the hill. Willie Mullins is three pronged but the value in the race looks to be the THE LIQUIDATOR. I will always forgive a horse one poor run if the value is there and if we excuse his shocker in the Tolworth he’d be near the head of the betting so represents the value in the race.
The Arkle is all about Champagne Fever with his two wins at the Cheltenham festival. His price is based on that and the Mullins/Walsh axis so again on value terms TRIFOLIUM has achieved more over fences this season and looks the best jumper around. Rock on Ruby looks best of the English and it looks between them but preference is for the Charles Byrnes horse.
The Champion Hurdle is an epic with no horse since Sea Pigeon winning this race at 10 years of age. HURRICANE FLY has all the stats to break and there will be loads of layers lining up to take him on. I’m not one of them and for all the talk of Our Conor going to reverse the form back at Cheltenham I think that line has been over egged. The British challenge is solid but again right now Hurricane Fly actually deserves to be shorter than all the other protagonists in the race. Value is gone on Our Conor. Punters are expected to take only one point bigger for him over the horse that beat him fair and square the last two runs and Our Conor doesn’t have Bryan Cooper in the saddle either. Hurricane is the bet to join the pantheon of greats.
I hate the Mares Hurdle. Its a nonsense race and I won’t be jumping up celebrating Quevaga breaking the record for winning six egg and spoon races around Cheltenham. She looks hard to oppose and whatever way the day has gone, many punter will be lining up to back her as the nap of the entire festival. Her stable mate GLENS MELODY and the French trained Sirene D’Ainay will give her most to do and I’ll go each way on Glen’s Melody.
I have no strong view on the handicaps on Tuesday with tentative selections for STANDING OVATIONin the 2:40 and KING VUVUZELA in the 5:15.
The National Hunt Chase is now the domain of top class horses with the race changes made a few years ago. The last three favourites have won and the dogs have been barking for ages on Foxrock for Ted Walsh. It looks hard to see the Katie Walsh ridden horse being out of the front three bar a fall so don’t let me put you off but I’ll go for SUNTIEP to give Willie and Patrick Mullins back to back winners in the race.
TUES
11TH MARCH
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Time
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Ruby's
Mount
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Bettor
Not Lose Selection
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1.30
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2.05
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2.40
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No ride
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3.20
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4.00
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4.40
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No ride
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5.15
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2m 4 1/2
f
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Wednesday Racing Preview
A tough enough start with a few places but the Champion Hurdle left a sour aftertaste.
Onwards and out and Wednesday is another day. FAUGHEEN has been talking horse for the Mullins yard all season in the antepost markets but this race is a dangerous proposition with good things like Pont Alexandre, Aran Concerto and Denman beaten favourites in the Neptune. He still looks the bet but I wouldn’t be losing my mind with massive stakes.
In the RSA you could make a case for five or six and not be considered daft. I shall probably look daft and go for one out of most peoples radar GEVREY CHAMBERTIN who stopped to a walk last time out but has bags of ability and with a cannier ride can get into the places at a huge price.
COTTON MILL is another with bags of ability and its only a matter of time before John Ferguson trains a winner at the festival and this animal is overpriced paying five places.
The Champion Chase looks a Grade 2 on paper and looks ripe for a big priced winner. SOMERSBY is the bet for me but I’d be looking to back the field v the favs( Sire De Grugy, Captain Conan or Arvika Ligeionnaire) as a case can be made for many of the outsiders to cause a shock
BALTHAZAR KING will thrive on the fast ground and can defy top weight but watch out for the highly talked up Star Neuville. His name kept coming up in all the Cheltenham preview nights and was Danny Mullins nap of the festival at our preview night. He is right at the bottom off a feather weight. After what happened to Our Conor I hope he enters the winners enclosure
Another man having a difficult week is AP McCoy with his son’s heart treatment and GOODWOOD MIRAGE may give him his first winner of the week.
In the bumper its a case of which Mullins to back and I think Patrick has chosen right this time on BLACK HERCULES
WED 12TH
MARCH
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Time
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Ruby's
Mount
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Bettor
Not Lose Selection
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1.30
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2.05
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2.40
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3.20
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4.00
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No Ride
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4.40
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5.15
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Thursday Racing Preview
Two wins and two placed animals has us in front as we embark on Thursday card.
Tony McCoy has yet to ride a winner at the festival and in truth I'm sure he doesnt even care when his eight month old son is suffering from heart problems right now but TAQUIN DU SEUIL is the selection in the opener. The form of his wins is working out well and he's beat Oscar Whisy fair and square and is one of the highest regarded horses in the Jonjo yard. His flop last year at the festival had many puzzled and this has been the target all season.
FINGAL BAY is not exactly an original selection but even off top weight, his rating looks generous and will be near impossible to keep out of the top each way.
The value is gone for DYNASTE in the Ryanair but he still looks the most likely winner of the race. The suspicion is Benefficent would like the ground a little slower whilst Boston Bob needs further. Paul Nicholls Al Ferof will give him most to do.
The World Hurdle is shaping up to be an excellent race and although I really do love Annie Power, the value has now disappeared and she is not 100% guaranteed to get the trip. I wouldnt rule out Big Bucks but then again I wouldnt rule out any of Paul Nicholls horses at all and he could train the first three home if Annie flops. At the odds CELESTIAL HALO at 25/1 is a must bet and maybe prove Daryl Jacob right after all
The Byrne Plate looks a tough puzzle to solve but I like TATENEN whose only had two runs this season and looked tip top in each for Richard Rowe.
In the Kim Muir CAUSE OF CAUSES can finally land that plot they've been hatching having finished second in the Galway Hurdle and Christmas Festival Handicap Chase
Friday Racing Preview
Ok we're finally into the last day and if the week is going bad for you remember last year bookies were well in front until a bloodbath on the final day with Our Conor, Ted Veale, At Fishers Cross, Bobs Worth, Salisfy and Alderwood wiping out all the profit and many punters winning big on multiple bets. Many punters availed of a 50/1 treble for
At Fishers Cross, Bobs Worth and Salisfy in John Mulholland shops that I've not been let forget in a hurry.
Last year Our Conor was sensational in the Triumph and although Dessie and the world knows GUITAR PETE is not at that level, he's still a solid option. Many punters fancy Tiger Roll to reverse the form but breeding suggests the fast ground won't help his cause. Paul Nicholls Calipto is a solid selection at the top of the market.
The County Hurdle is harder than a Rubik's Cube to solve so don't be shy having two or three selections to try and catch the winner. Champion Bumper winner Cheltenian is definitely on my shortlist as is Cinders and Ashes who is making his first start in over a year but at the prices BARIZANis the bet to get into the each way places at 40/1.
From a bookies point of view I dont know how we're going to get Briar Hill beaten. He was napped by Patrick Mullins at our Cheltenham preview night and after Vautour and Faugheen winning in the other novice hurdle races, it looks prettyy ominious. It was backed from 4/1 that night into perhaps odds on by the time the race goes off. MOSSPARK looks the bookies only hope and I'll put that up against the favourite in hope rather than confidence.
Some horses you fall in love with and others you're colder than Anne Robinson to. Bobs Worth has got the ginger quiz master treatment from me especially seeing as the only time I backed it, it flopped in the Betfair Chase. If you fancy it, you'll be delighted to know I'm staying away from it. Rock solid form around Cheltenham makes it the one to beat and Silvianio Conti on my conscience either as Cue Card lost the King George rather than Conti won it. LAST INSTALMENT was sensational last time out and if they allow it to take its chance on the faster surface, they clearly think he'll handle it and in a weak renewal, he can escape the field, have the front pair in trouble and will be hard to keep out of the top three at perhaps a double figure price by the off.
Last years defeat for Jane Mangan was as heartbreaking for the bookies as it was for herself and in a weak renewal, OSCAR DELTA can go one better this year. Watch out in the morning for money on Berties Dream whose been winning on the point to point circuit and is liable for a gamble around these parts
VIEUX LION ROUGE is the only David Pipe runner in the race named after his father Martin. Thats a big enough clue to me and has to be added to your betting portfolio.
The getting out stakes and it looks like JP McManus has a stranglehold on this race again after owning the first and second last year. Mr Mole is a bit of a headcase so NED BUNTLINE with the legend Paul Carberry off a featherweight looks the bet. His form behind Ballycasey and Mozoltov is the kind of handicap plot form that suggests he could be a graded horse masquerading in a handicap
Two wins and two placed animals has us in front as we embark on Thursday card.
Tony McCoy has yet to ride a winner at the festival and in truth I'm sure he doesnt even care when his eight month old son is suffering from heart problems right now but TAQUIN DU SEUIL is the selection in the opener. The form of his wins is working out well and he's beat Oscar Whisy fair and square and is one of the highest regarded horses in the Jonjo yard. His flop last year at the festival had many puzzled and this has been the target all season.
FINGAL BAY is not exactly an original selection but even off top weight, his rating looks generous and will be near impossible to keep out of the top each way.
The value is gone for DYNASTE in the Ryanair but he still looks the most likely winner of the race. The suspicion is Benefficent would like the ground a little slower whilst Boston Bob needs further. Paul Nicholls Al Ferof will give him most to do.
The World Hurdle is shaping up to be an excellent race and although I really do love Annie Power, the value has now disappeared and she is not 100% guaranteed to get the trip. I wouldnt rule out Big Bucks but then again I wouldnt rule out any of Paul Nicholls horses at all and he could train the first three home if Annie flops. At the odds CELESTIAL HALO at 25/1 is a must bet and maybe prove Daryl Jacob right after all
The Byrne Plate looks a tough puzzle to solve but I like TATENEN whose only had two runs this season and looked tip top in each for Richard Rowe.
In the Kim Muir CAUSE OF CAUSES can finally land that plot they've been hatching having finished second in the Galway Hurdle and Christmas Festival Handicap Chase
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Friday Racing Preview
Ok we're finally into the last day and if the week is going bad for you remember last year bookies were well in front until a bloodbath on the final day with Our Conor, Ted Veale, At Fishers Cross, Bobs Worth, Salisfy and Alderwood wiping out all the profit and many punters winning big on multiple bets. Many punters availed of a 50/1 treble for
At Fishers Cross, Bobs Worth and Salisfy in John Mulholland shops that I've not been let forget in a hurry.
Last year Our Conor was sensational in the Triumph and although Dessie and the world knows GUITAR PETE is not at that level, he's still a solid option. Many punters fancy Tiger Roll to reverse the form but breeding suggests the fast ground won't help his cause. Paul Nicholls Calipto is a solid selection at the top of the market.
The County Hurdle is harder than a Rubik's Cube to solve so don't be shy having two or three selections to try and catch the winner. Champion Bumper winner Cheltenian is definitely on my shortlist as is Cinders and Ashes who is making his first start in over a year but at the prices BARIZANis the bet to get into the each way places at 40/1.
From a bookies point of view I dont know how we're going to get Briar Hill beaten. He was napped by Patrick Mullins at our Cheltenham preview night and after Vautour and Faugheen winning in the other novice hurdle races, it looks prettyy ominious. It was backed from 4/1 that night into perhaps odds on by the time the race goes off. MOSSPARK looks the bookies only hope and I'll put that up against the favourite in hope rather than confidence.
Some horses you fall in love with and others you're colder than Anne Robinson to. Bobs Worth has got the ginger quiz master treatment from me especially seeing as the only time I backed it, it flopped in the Betfair Chase. If you fancy it, you'll be delighted to know I'm staying away from it. Rock solid form around Cheltenham makes it the one to beat and Silvianio Conti on my conscience either as Cue Card lost the King George rather than Conti won it. LAST INSTALMENT was sensational last time out and if they allow it to take its chance on the faster surface, they clearly think he'll handle it and in a weak renewal, he can escape the field, have the front pair in trouble and will be hard to keep out of the top three at perhaps a double figure price by the off.
Last years defeat for Jane Mangan was as heartbreaking for the bookies as it was for herself and in a weak renewal, OSCAR DELTA can go one better this year. Watch out in the morning for money on Berties Dream whose been winning on the point to point circuit and is liable for a gamble around these parts
VIEUX LION ROUGE is the only David Pipe runner in the race named after his father Martin. Thats a big enough clue to me and has to be added to your betting portfolio.
The getting out stakes and it looks like JP McManus has a stranglehold on this race again after owning the first and second last year. Mr Mole is a bit of a headcase so NED BUNTLINE with the legend Paul Carberry off a featherweight looks the bet. His form behind Ballycasey and Mozoltov is the kind of handicap plot form that suggests he could be a graded horse masquerading in a handicap
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Great read, thanks for the post.
ReplyDeleteI'm a huge Liquidator fan, but the shocking run last time out isn't the only problem. His trainer's stated he's been lucky to even get him to line up, and I fancy he'll be 20+ lengths behind IRVING.
Respect to Trifolium and what he's achieved, but his form's been sketchy and lacks the class of CHAMPAGNE FEVER. Rock On Ruby has to be the lay of the meeting.
OUR CONOR is improving all the time and only has a couple of lengths to find. Hard to come up with a confident pick and happy to see any of the big four win. Value may lie with Ptit Zig e/w, Nicholls confident he'll run a big race at 50/1.