All Ireland Football Championship 2014 Preview

This column first appeared in Galway Independent on 14/05/2014

3 predictions for Gaelic football this season

The rise of Cork

One All Ireland under Conor Counihan always felt like underachievement. The dismantling of Tyrone in 2009 was the greatest single performance I have ever witnessed at Croke Park. Nerves against their greatest rivals Kerry and a lack of a second gear seemed to be their undoing but this season under Cuthbert the rebels have been revived. A young vibrant squad, this team now looks the biggest danger to supposed certainties Dublin. They will learn from that semi final defeat and I’ve seen enough this season to consider them potential winners. Everybody raves about Dublins amazing comeback in that semi final but Cork blitzed the champions in the first half and Colm O Neill’s goal threat looks the key ingredient to a big summer. Cork fell apart in the middle of the field that day allowing Dublin to win every kick out in the second half. This will not be repeated and right now I find it hard to see Cork not making an All Ireland final. In Munster they’re odds on to beat a Colm Cooper-less Kerry and considering victory there means they avoid Dublin and the Ulster Champions until the final, they are the bet of the season each way at 6/1 or 2/1 to reach the final.

The fall of Mayo

Now let me be clear before any Mayo head reading this hands it to James Horan. This is my views and nobody else’s. It doesn’t reflect the views of the Mulholland organisation especially the man who is currently Galway manager. Mayo will win nothing this year. Having boldly tipped them at the outset last year at 12/1, I was firmly in the camp that believed 2013 was their year. Even as Cillian O’Connor stood in front of the goal, with the game on the line, I thought they'd win it. Twice beaten finalists, I could forgive them losing to Donegal’s early sucker punches in 2012 but last year they choked. End of. Dublin were on the rack and Mayo could not finish them off instead conceding a soft goal and going in only a point in front after a first half of dominance. Even if they get back to the level of play they reached last season, Dublin are now superior to their 2013 side, Cork are on the rise and will pose a mammoth task in the semi finals and half of Ulster is now on a more than capable of reaching their level and can knock them out in the quarter finals.  At 6/1 they are horrendous value to lift Sam. From a betting point of view I'd be inclined to take the 5/2 they don't even win the Nestor Cup this year. Roscommon are capable of an upset in a year I expect Horan’s men to go backwards after years competing at the highest level.

The most open Ulster ever

Nostradamus couldn't predict who'll win Ulster this year. There are 6-7 genuine contenders. Right now at the odds I'd say Cavan (11/1) are the value whilst Donegal (7/2) are hard to get excited about but I'd hang my hat on nobody right now. At 25/1 I’d venture Cavan, Derry, Monaghan and Tyrone to join Dublin, Cork, Kerry and (maybe) Mayo in August Bank Holiday weekend. By the way John Mulholland are betting on which side will produce the most black cards this season and no surprise that Tyrone are 7/2 favourites. Look below for many more markets.

Opening weekend Acca
Roscommon, Laois, Longford and Tyrone is hard to see past at 5/2

Will Mayo lose...again?

This appeared first in the Galway Independent on Wednesday 18/09/2013

Will Mayo lose...again? 
Back in my very first column in May I tipped Mayo at 12/1 for the All Ireland and said that Dublin needed this season to bed in year one with Jim Gavin. Am I going to jump ship at the last minute? As much as I have harboured on about the weaknesses in Dublin’s game before the semi final, it would remiss of me not to credit them hugely on their comeback against Kerry having conceded three goals in 19 minutes. So will they win this All Ireland ahead of schedule and follow Donegal by beating Cork and Kerry and Mayo in the final?
When I measure both sides I give Dublin the advantage in the forwards and from free kicks however Mayo edge it for me with a superior midfield and defenders so if Mayo can replicate Kerry’s pressure on Cluxton’s kickouts, they’ll control the flow of the game and can build up a lead.  Dublin’s advantage in earlier rounds of a strong bench is neutralised here with Mayo possessing just as strong replacements thereby I cannot see them pulling away in final ten minutes. Both sides score goals but only Dublin have been conceding them this season and anybody looking for a value bet could do worse than backing Andy Moran for man of the match at 14/1. Mayo’s talisman has had a poor season but I expect him to explode into life here and will relish the opportunity to play the orchestrator here against a weak full back line and lead Mayo to victory. John Mulholland is running another mad cashback by refund your losing goalscorer bets if Mayo lose their seventh final in a row this Sunday. Betting is Mayo 11/10, Dublin Evens and Draw 9/1.

Galway Senior Hurling Club Championship

Looking at the fixtures and betting of this weekend’s hurling quarter finals, it really does look hard to oppose the short priced favourites Loughrea, Portumna or St Thomas. So if there is going to be one surprise, where will it come from? Castlegar look a small value bet to knock out the All Ireland champions St Thomas. Unlucky not to defeat Loughrea, John McIntyre’s men have had one of their best seasons in ages. Ger Farragher their main attacking option saved them against Kinvara but that result may look better with hindsight and at 5/1 have a nibble that Castlegar cause the upset.

Galway’s summer draws to a close

Galway’s summer draws to a close

Galway (7/4) will face a resurgent Armagh (4/7) on Saturday who have won their last two games by 25 and 27 points. Lets hope the Orangemen don't run riot in Salthill like they did in Carrick on Shannon and....moving on. Paul Grimley has stuck to his guns with his all out attack policy and while this might suit Galway tactically, as they’ve struggled with the blanket defence, they’ve shown little defensive steel either. Galway lost by six in the league when these two sides last clashed and it’s hard to envisage them outscoring the Orchard county this weekend.

Connacht &Ulster finals
 
For the first time since 1983, no team from Northern Ireland will contest the Ulster final. The DUP must be raging, their July is ruined. Monaghan have been a bogey side to Donegal but that was in the pre McGuinness era and if Donegal are to show signs of defending their title, they’ll need to beat the handicap line of six with ease. The Connacht final is in the ‘neutral’ venue of McHale Park, Castlebar for Mayo and London. This is nearly as big a mismatch as Spain v Tahiti a few weeks ago. Can London avoid an 18 points or more beating in front of a baying Mayo crowd? At 33/1 London are the biggest priced underdogs in provincial final history and Mulhollands are betting 4/6 that the Connacht final will have a bigger winning margin than the other three provinces combined.

It’s wide Open
Its been an incredible twelve months for British sport but can a mainland golfer now win their national major for the first time this century? When Harrington won Ireland’s first major in sixty years, six more majors quickly followed. Justin Rose’s US Open win might be the catalyst for Lee Westwood, Luke Donald and others to reach out and grab their maiden major. Of the Irish contingent, McDowell (25/1), with three wins to his name this season, is rated a shorter price than McIlroy (28/1) for the second major in a row. Despite the notion that this type of course should suit GMac, the fact is he has never competed well at the Open. Lowry at 66/1 might be a good selection for 1^st round leader, whilst Harrington (66/1) could be best of the Irish on a course he finish 5^th in 2002. My selection is Phil Mickelson who won his first tournament on European soil on Sunday meaning he’s been second, second & first in his last three tournaments going to Muirfield. He’s 20/1 and John Mulholland is paying each way the first seven places.

Will Galway Bate Mayo?

As appeared in Galway Independent on Wednesday 15/05/2013

Will Galway Bate Mayo?

John Mulholland is pledging to give money back on a whole host of betting markets if Galway win while James Horan is claiming most of his panel are injured/carrying knocks despite my spies saying otherwise. Yes ladies & gentlemen we are at the phoney war stage on the western front. The battle will commence this Sunday & we are in for an epic start to the championship. Whilst Galway's future looks bright with another U21 All Ireland title, this team is still a few years away from sitting at the top table. Mayo on the other hand are at that table and deservedly so. I wouldn't give any other division two side a hope of beating Mayo but Galway will have the same mindset as the Aussies do for the All Blacks in rugby. Galway players should never accept they're inferior to their neighbours up the N17 & that belief gives them a fighting chance. Some stats to give Galway fans hope is that Alan Mulholland has won the opening match of every competition since taking over Galway (FBD, League and Championship). Galway have also beaten Mayo in Connacht the last four times the following season after Mayo were beaten All Ireland finalists. This match has added significance as Galway and Mayo are level with 44 Connacht titles each. Mayo are seeking their 3^rd Connacht title in a row, a feat they haven’t achieved since 1951 when they last lifted Sam Maguire. Where’s the bet this weekend? James Horan believes it’s only a matter of time before Mayo start scoring goals after a league campaign of missed chances with only two goals in the league campaign. Galway however have better firepower in the full forward line and look to back both Meehan and Conroy in the first goalscorer markets at 13/2 & 8/1 respectively with John Mulholland. If they fail to score 1^st but Galway win you get your money back. 

Dream of the August Bank Holiday
This weekend punters up and down the land will be punting who they believe will win each province and who lifts Sam in September but John Mulholland has come up with an exclusive bet in his shops. Punters can for the first time predict the 8 quarter finalists. At 16/1 my choices are Mayo, Kerry, Cork, Dublin, Kildare, Donegal, Tyrone and Armagh.

Bet of the Week
Tonight Chelsea face Benfica in the Europa League final. Back Benfica at 9/4 to give Benitez a downer in Amsterdam.