All Ireland Football Championship 2014 Preview

This column first appeared in Galway Independent on 14/05/2014

3 predictions for Gaelic football this season

The rise of Cork

One All Ireland under Conor Counihan always felt like underachievement. The dismantling of Tyrone in 2009 was the greatest single performance I have ever witnessed at Croke Park. Nerves against their greatest rivals Kerry and a lack of a second gear seemed to be their undoing but this season under Cuthbert the rebels have been revived. A young vibrant squad, this team now looks the biggest danger to supposed certainties Dublin. They will learn from that semi final defeat and I’ve seen enough this season to consider them potential winners. Everybody raves about Dublins amazing comeback in that semi final but Cork blitzed the champions in the first half and Colm O Neill’s goal threat looks the key ingredient to a big summer. Cork fell apart in the middle of the field that day allowing Dublin to win every kick out in the second half. This will not be repeated and right now I find it hard to see Cork not making an All Ireland final. In Munster they’re odds on to beat a Colm Cooper-less Kerry and considering victory there means they avoid Dublin and the Ulster Champions until the final, they are the bet of the season each way at 6/1 or 2/1 to reach the final.

The fall of Mayo

Now let me be clear before any Mayo head reading this hands it to James Horan. This is my views and nobody else’s. It doesn’t reflect the views of the Mulholland organisation especially the man who is currently Galway manager. Mayo will win nothing this year. Having boldly tipped them at the outset last year at 12/1, I was firmly in the camp that believed 2013 was their year. Even as Cillian O’Connor stood in front of the goal, with the game on the line, I thought they'd win it. Twice beaten finalists, I could forgive them losing to Donegal’s early sucker punches in 2012 but last year they choked. End of. Dublin were on the rack and Mayo could not finish them off instead conceding a soft goal and going in only a point in front after a first half of dominance. Even if they get back to the level of play they reached last season, Dublin are now superior to their 2013 side, Cork are on the rise and will pose a mammoth task in the semi finals and half of Ulster is now on a more than capable of reaching their level and can knock them out in the quarter finals.  At 6/1 they are horrendous value to lift Sam. From a betting point of view I'd be inclined to take the 5/2 they don't even win the Nestor Cup this year. Roscommon are capable of an upset in a year I expect Horan’s men to go backwards after years competing at the highest level.

The most open Ulster ever

Nostradamus couldn't predict who'll win Ulster this year. There are 6-7 genuine contenders. Right now at the odds I'd say Cavan (11/1) are the value whilst Donegal (7/2) are hard to get excited about but I'd hang my hat on nobody right now. At 25/1 I’d venture Cavan, Derry, Monaghan and Tyrone to join Dublin, Cork, Kerry and (maybe) Mayo in August Bank Holiday weekend. By the way John Mulholland are betting on which side will produce the most black cards this season and no surprise that Tyrone are 7/2 favourites. Look below for many more markets.

Opening weekend Acca
Roscommon, Laois, Longford and Tyrone is hard to see past at 5/2

Will Mayo lose...again?

This appeared first in the Galway Independent on Wednesday 18/09/2013

Will Mayo lose...again? 
Back in my very first column in May I tipped Mayo at 12/1 for the All Ireland and said that Dublin needed this season to bed in year one with Jim Gavin. Am I going to jump ship at the last minute? As much as I have harboured on about the weaknesses in Dublin’s game before the semi final, it would remiss of me not to credit them hugely on their comeback against Kerry having conceded three goals in 19 minutes. So will they win this All Ireland ahead of schedule and follow Donegal by beating Cork and Kerry and Mayo in the final?
When I measure both sides I give Dublin the advantage in the forwards and from free kicks however Mayo edge it for me with a superior midfield and defenders so if Mayo can replicate Kerry’s pressure on Cluxton’s kickouts, they’ll control the flow of the game and can build up a lead.  Dublin’s advantage in earlier rounds of a strong bench is neutralised here with Mayo possessing just as strong replacements thereby I cannot see them pulling away in final ten minutes. Both sides score goals but only Dublin have been conceding them this season and anybody looking for a value bet could do worse than backing Andy Moran for man of the match at 14/1. Mayo’s talisman has had a poor season but I expect him to explode into life here and will relish the opportunity to play the orchestrator here against a weak full back line and lead Mayo to victory. John Mulholland is running another mad cashback by refund your losing goalscorer bets if Mayo lose their seventh final in a row this Sunday. Betting is Mayo 11/10, Dublin Evens and Draw 9/1.

Galway Senior Hurling Club Championship

Looking at the fixtures and betting of this weekend’s hurling quarter finals, it really does look hard to oppose the short priced favourites Loughrea, Portumna or St Thomas. So if there is going to be one surprise, where will it come from? Castlegar look a small value bet to knock out the All Ireland champions St Thomas. Unlucky not to defeat Loughrea, John McIntyre’s men have had one of their best seasons in ages. Ger Farragher their main attacking option saved them against Kinvara but that result may look better with hindsight and at 5/1 have a nibble that Castlegar cause the upset.

Reform the All Ireland series?

With the championship so far resembling a tennis major with the big guns cruising through the early rounds like its week one and the championship not really feeling like it will lift off until the August bank holiday many journalists are asking should we change the system of the provincial championships.

Everybody accepts Ulster is the most competitive championship year on year whilst in Munster, Cork and Kerry have one big game against each other and must wait 6 weeks before the quarter finals. Whilst it is true that only Clare in 1992 has won Munster outside the big two in 80 odd years its not fair to dismiss Limerick and Tipperary as cannon fodder. They may struggle to beat the big two but they've rattled a few cages in the qualifiers and especially Tipperary with their underage success may catch one of the big two soon. Mayo trashed Galway this year and poor Alan and the boys will be scared for life with that defeat but Mayo did not dominate Connacht until recently and the other sides will either catch up or Mayo will descend in time. Teams move in cycles and those in the wilderness like Galway, Armagh and Meath will someday sit at the top table again.

The biggest problem with the All Ireland series is not weak teams taking on the big guns and getting beat out the gate, its the layout of matches that see Galway wait six weeks for their next game, that sees Dublin wait a month, Kerry playing two weekends back to back whilst their next two games will be on the 7th of July and first weekend of August if they win the Munster title. That’s two games in nine weeks.

The nature of our provinces with unequal teams to some is its charm, to others it’s simply not an equitable system and grossly unfair that makes it heavy odds on that Cork and Kerry make the quarter finals every year whilst Tyrone, Donegal, Derry and Down know they must battle all the way to make the big weekend in August.

So what would be a fairer system? Many want to see provincial systems ran in the early year separate from the championship and then run a 32 team Champions League format. Others advocate making each province 8 teams each with balanced structure. This at least should mean teams should play same amount of games and might look at gaps of only three weeks between games.

I would suggest something even bolder to refresh the game. I would do away with the league entirely for a three year experiment and replace it with a brand new structure with the championship. I would create eight conferences of four teams based on geography but each team would play ten games in total. Three against their conference rivals and seven against seven teams from outside their conference that would be randomly determined but would ensure that they face at least three or four of the top sixteen rated sides and the three or four against the bottom 17th -32^nd rated sides. Every team would have five home and away games (even Dublin). This would mean the smaller teams would find out the level of intensity needed to play the bigger teams, something they seem to only find out in Championship having played a lower standard of Gaelic in Division 2nd/3rd/4th. The competition would start in late March/Early April and would free up space for the local championships and give certain dates for planners as teams would know teams are playing from the October the previous year. This model is based on the NFL system in America.

So how would it work

The top team in all 8 groups would make the playoffs/final 12.
The 4 best placed other teams would make the playoffs/final 12 too

Of the eight winners in each conference, the four winners with the higest winning record would automatically go through to the quarter finals
The four other winners would playoff with home field advantage against the 4 best non winners with a seeded systemto determine who faces who.

That would leave the final 8 in the quarter finals and games would then be played in Croke Park from this point on during August bank holiday

This would mean no more meaningless league, teams could play for a trophy each season as titles would be awarded for winning your conference

We could allow New York host a Tommy Murphy type cup with bottom seven ranked sides to keep them in some form of competition.

Here is the layout of proposed conferences:

North West Conference
Donegal
Leitrim
Fermanaagh
Tyrone

Northern Conference
Derry
Antrim
Armagh
Down

Western Conference
Sligo
Roscommon
Galway
Mayo

Midlands Conference
Monaghan
Cavan
Longford
Westmeath

Eastern Conference
Louth
Dublin
Kildare
Meath


South Eastern Conference
Wicklow
Carlow
Wexford
London

Southern Conference
Offaly
Laois
Tipperary
Waterford

South West Conference
Clare
Cork
Kerry
Limerick

So here is a likely scenario if we ran this experiment

Best teams
1- Dublin with 9 wins- win Eastern Conference championship
2-Mayo win 7 games-Wins Western Conference
3-Tyrone win 7 games-Wins North West Conference
4-Cork win 7 games-win South West Conference

these 4 teams are through to the 1/4 finals with best record

The following are the 4 other champions who'll have home field advantage in the last 12
5-Down win 6 games-win Northern Conference
6-Westmeath win 5 games win Midlands conference
7-laois win 5 games in Southern Conference
8-Wexford win 4 games wins South Eastern Conference

Best placed finishers that didn’t win their conference

9-Kerry win 6 games- Will play Wexford in Wexford
10 Donegal win 6 games- Will play Laois in Laois
11-Kildare win 5 games-Will play Westmeath in Westmeath
12- Armagh win 5 games-Will play Down in Down


and the ranking could continue right through to quarter finals. Also benefit of this system is GAA could construct the group games to ensure we always a have a big match every weekend eg. One weekend its Galway v mayo, next weekend Cork v Kerry, next is Donegal v Tyrone, next Dublin v Kildare and so on.

We would keep the local rivalries, have a steady balanced structure, give the smaller teams realistic goals to achieve and give them big days when Dublin and Kerry come to their grounds. The big guns could use the smaller teams as a chance to give fringe players a crack without fear of missing out on the quarter finals and once we make it to the last 12, the real competition will really begin and this
has no problem selling itself.

                                                                                                                      
                                                                       
by Kevin Breslin
Read me every Wednesday in the Galway Independent

All Ireland Football Preview 2013

The Short Road to Croker for Dublin

Dublin look so hungry for Sam Maguire this year that they’ve been taking bites out of the current All Ireland champions. At 5/2, Dublin are most pundits tip for the top, they have a huge panel, a title already under their belt and look 2 months ahead of the opposition fitness wise. Only fifteen can start though and Dublin could wilt under the favourite’s tag? Its Jim Gavin’s rookie season and I fancy they’ll come up just short in September.

It’s their year
 Another rookie manager, Eamonn Fitzmaurice hasn’t the class at his disposal to replace Kerry’s ageing stars. Rivals Cork have taken a walk in the betting after a poor National League and losing Colm O Neill for the season. They look too big at 6/1 as it’s hard not seeing them making another semi final but they lack that top gear and will fall to Dublin in the semi finals. Donegal versus Tyrone is the marquee game early in the championship and the winner should go onto win Ulster, meet Mayo in the semis and will be expected to make the final. No team in the modern era has defended the title except Kerry and that was with two different managers in 2007/2008 and with men like Karl Lacey, Mark McHugh and Neil Gallagher either coming back from injuries or carrying knocks, I cannot back Donegal for a repeat until they come through this match. Mayo is my bold tip and one that I can expect to be crucified for. Again I’d hold off backing them until after the meeting of potential banana skin Galway but if they do not win in Salthill, Roscommon nor Sligo will stop them for 3 Connacht titles in a row. The last time they did that was 1951. If it’s a nice quarter final draw they’ll have the game now to beat Donegal or Tyrone in the semi finals before defeating Dublin in the final to claim their first all Ireland since 1951.
Betting 5/2 Dublin, 9/2 Kerry, Donegal, 11/2, Cork, 10/1 Mayo, Tyrone, 50/1 Galway

John Mulholland is offering an exclusive bet for his customers in all his shops. Can you predict the 8 Quarter Finalists. Last season 7 of the 8 Division One teams made it along with the Division Two champions. Who are your eight sides this season at 16/1