National Football League Division One
Is the most open National football league ever? With 4 sides reaching the semi
finals, two sides relegated, only 5
th and 6
th spots make for
a mid-table campaign. We could have the situation where a loss or win on the
final day is the difference between relegation to Division Two or a chance of
winning the first major silverware of the GAA season. Yes I’ve ignored the
McKenna Cup, O Malley Cups and FBD when talking major silverware but can we
ignore the pre season form of the big eight sides when trying to determine the
likeliest winner?
Cork
We are entering last chance saloon for Conor Counihan. Most GAA pundits
expected him to stand down after tactically getting out thought and outclassed
by Donegal in the Semi Final but the county board have given him another bite of
the cherry here to gain the silverware the quality of this side would expect to
win. Winners of the last 3 National football leagues show this side is one of
the best sides of the 21
st century but one All Ireland for Cork
supporters must feel like an underachievement on this biggest stage of all. One
is better than none but one is also the amount of gears that Cork seem to possess. Its bloody good gear but any opponent comes sidling up alongside Cork at the same speed, Cork bottle it. The will reach the Munster football final this
season through a route of Limerick and Clare so they'll give the league their full attention at this time of year. They are the standard bearer to beat in this competition
and another final looks on the card.
Verdict 2nd
Odds 3/1
Donegal
Donegal under Jim McGuinness have never given the McKenna cup much respect with
2 wins in 9 games. This season, he has given his u21 team a chance to shine but
that sank badly with heavy defeats to Fermanagh and Monaghan followed by a
slender one point victory over St Marys. Have the wheels come off? Will the
party boys of Donegal emerge again after winning the biggest prize last season?
It will take time to see whether the hunger will remain this season but one
common misconception of Donegal GAA is they won the big one in 92 and went
missing for the next 20 years. Truth is Donegal in 1993 went to the league
final and to the Ulster final where they lost to eventual All Ireland champions
Derry. This season, the noises coming out are all about Tyrone in May. Karl
Lacey will miss the league campaign and it’s hard to see Donegal getting into
full gear straight from the Kildare match. They should win 3 games against
Down, Kerry & Dublin and just avoid relegation again. Jimmy will probably need to help Neil Lennon win the Champions League in May before concentrating on his 3rd Ulster title. The real worry is how he's going to find the time in September 2014 to win the Ryder Cup with Paul McGinley and plot winning Donegals 3rd All Ireland title.
Verdict 6th
Odds 11/2
Dublin
Jim McGuinness might not be the most talked about GAA manager this season in
the media as the Jim Gavin story develops. It’s been flagged that the
discipline within the Dublin camp will be army like but the iron fist approach could unravel very quickly.. Just because Bernard Brogan and co are tucked up in their
jimmy jams at 9pm on a Saturday night doesn’t mean Dublin will party again in
September. Last season it
was levelled at the Dubs that the appetite had gone and their famous early morning
sessions just wasn't enough to push them to back to back titles. Although they
deservedly slumped to Mayo, in the end, they were not far away and Gavin doesn’t
need to employ wholesale changes. Ciaran Kilkenny coming home for Oz is a huge
plus but like England’s next great hope in soccer, time will tell whether he’s
as good as the Dublin media hype machine says he is.
Verdict 4th
Odds 7/2
Down
Rory Gallagher wrote Donegal’s theme song and
Paul Johnson’s Down Down could
be Down’s. The Mourne men have been in the descent since 2010’s All Ireland
final appearance but you simply cannot replace players of Marty Clarkes
talent easily. Benny Coulter made a herculean recovery from a broken leg to
take part in last season’s championship but two heavy defeats to Donegal and
Mayo have people writing off Down. I wouldn’t be one of those, Donegal
and Mayo were the best two teams in the country lasts season and Down are still
a deserved top eight side that can beat any of the others on their day but
without the services of Rogers, Hughes and Gordon, they'll struggle to survive
this season . James McCartan has highlighted height up front as an area of
weakness so he better uncover a lanky gem quick or it will certainly be Down down.
Verdict 7th
Odds 20/1
Kerry
Kerry has a new manager in Eamonn Fitzmaurice but it will take time to learn
whether he will usher in a new dawn in Kerry football. The simple fact is Kerry
is not replacing their ageing stars. Emigration is also a major problem; those
fringe players that would have pushed the 1
st team for places are
choosing a life abroad so the first team players haven’t that top quality
competition to push them further. This could be argued should happen to all
peripheral counties in Ireland during the recession but Kerry seem to be the
worst off with player emigration figures. Underage, Kerry have not lived with
Cork and even Tipperary in recent years and were lucky with the permutations to
even end up in an All Ireland minor semi final. Kerry, like the Germans in
football, must never be written off but if they lost to Cork in Munster, I
wouldn’t fancy them against the other potential provincial winners Mayo,
Donegal or Dublin. The National league should see 3 wins and 4 loses recorded
for Fitzmaurice’s men
Verdict 5th
Odds7/2
Kildare
Last season Kildare brought home the bacon in the shape of a Division Two title but the championship was
McGeeneys worst season in charge. A Leinster title is the Holy Grail for
Kildare people and although they made the All Ireland semis in 2010 and had
that epic encounter v Donegal in 2011, it is hard to see them as contenders
this season. Kildare have had to relinquish home field advantage against Donegal in the first match at Newbridge as it has been deemed not up to merchantable quality and a loss to Donegal first up,
and I cannot see where the other wins will come from to stay in division one.
James Kavanagh will be missed but the truth is Kildare are the proverbial flat
track bully against the weaker counties but just don’t have the fire power up
front to deal with the big guns here. This little piggy is going all the way home.
Verdict
8th
Odds12/1
Mayo
Last year’s beaten finalists in both the All Ireland and national league; Mayo
fans have tried to keep a lid on expectations. During the run up to the All
Ireland, while Donegal fans were in a state of pandomouim, Mayo suppoerters hurt from 04 and 06
tried to keep it low key, they did not make an eegit of themselves with big predictions of lifting the big one. They were second best in September but they have the talent in that team to go one better in
September. James Horan seems keen to create that siege mentality in the
dressing room picking fights with RTE and Joe Brolly. The fact is Joe was right
and Mayo shouldn’t be ashamed of that. Mayo has picked up all that cynicism and
guile that separated Kerry and the great northern teams from Mayo in the big
matches. Mayo were a match physically for Donegal in last year’s final;check out the early hits on McHugh and Lacey. It cannot be argued they had a soft route to the final but they are
genuinely a top 5 side that can beat any of the other 4 on their day. Andy
Moran is scheduled to come back at the tail of the league in April but his
league involvement will be about blowing off the cobwebs in time for the clash
with rivals Galway. 4 matches at Home and they should look to win all 4 against
Kerry, Tyrone, Donegal and Kildare
Verdict 3rd
Odds 5/1
Tyrone
Mickey Harte’s side have shown good performances again in the McKenna Cup
and the theory that Harte can get his team to peak in May in the Ulster
championship while going through the motions in the league doesn’t hold water
with me. They have been a team in transition these last few seasons and of
course Mickey has had to deal with his own personal trauma but they look ready
to make the step back up to the big table. Tyrone have bedded in their new
players while still keeping old guards like captain Stephen O Neill and now Sean
Kavanagh back in midfield. McGuigan will be hard to replace but I think Tyrone
will be coming good this season and will hit the ground running by winning
their first league title in 10 years (also the year they won their first All
Ireland) and 12/1 is a stonking good value bet.
Verdict 1st
Odds12/1
