Galway v Donegal, Portumna v Na Piarsaigh & Kilnadeema/Leitrim and the Gamble

Galway v Donegal

As a Donegal man whose boss is also the current Galway football manager I’ll have to refrain from too many shouts of “Up Donegal” directly behind his dugout on Sunday. Going into this match, it appears Jim McGuinness is finally taking the league seriously so I’d say to all my Galway readers watch out for some fireworks in Pearse stadium. Last season was a complete write off for Donegal and whilst it would be folly to put them in the discussion of All Ireland contenders just yet, they are favourites to get promoted and have a huge chance of reclaiming Ulster. This team is still sparse on replacements but Patrick McBrearty is now back to full fitness and Donegal have a young star in Darach O'Connor as back up for the full forward line. Donegal have a great record this century against Galway beating them in the All Ireland quarter final replay back in 2003 as underdogs and beating them last time in the championship in the qualifiers back in 2009.

Both Galway and Donegal endured horrendous loses to Mayo last season but I’m expecting a big year for my own and adopted counties this season. If Galway can live with Donegal on Sunday, it could prove to be a springboard for these players to believe they are going in the right direction. I’ve made no side bet with Alan as he’ll be in foul enough mood on Monday if Galway lose but as much as I want to see Galway do well this year this is one game I’ll be cheering their defeat. Verdict Donegal by 1-3 at 5/2

Portumna v Na Piarsaigh
The Limerick champions Na Piarsaigh destroyed Sixmilebridge in 4-14 to 0-8 in the Munster final. Their fitness levels looked Intercounty standard that day and they possess a decent bench to change games but will that be enough to beat the Galway champions on Saturday? Bear in mind the All Ireland Club hurling championship has not been kind to Munster champions with Cork’s Newtownshandrum the last champions ten years ago. In that time only two more Munster sides made the final which is unbelievable for the province with the greatest bulk of quality hurling teams. One explanation maybe that Munster club sides need to peak for Munster finals and find it hard to find that level again come February. No Limerick side has ever won the title and they have a habit of clutching defeat from the jaws of victory. Value hunter may look to back back them but Mulholland’s make Portumna marginal favourites at 8/13 to win in normal time and 6/4 to win their 4^th All Ireland title.

 

Kilnadeema/Leitrim and the Gamble

Good luck to Kilnadeema/Leitrim this weekend in the Intermediate All Ireland final. This team is etched in this bookmakers consciousness every time John Mulholland’s price up local GAA. Back in 2003, manager Kevin Boyle knew his team were flying in training and Mulholland’s odds of 33/1 just to make the quarter finals of the Galway Senior Hurling Championship were an insult. He rounded up his players who each threw between €50 and €100 into the betting kitty. Current Galway manager Alan Mulholland was the head GAA odds compiler at the time and accepted that faithful bet that won €42,000 for the players and management. A hefty reward for all those hard training sessions was achieved and Alan was forced to pay out with a smile. The topic was covered by the American sportswriter Andy Mendlowitz in his book on GAA: Ireland's Professional Amateurs: A Sports Season at Its Purest.

This weekend Kilnadeema/Leitrim take on Rower Inistoge on Saturday night at 5:30 and once again, John Mulholland is making them big underdogs in this clash at 7/2. The firm is unlikely to lose anything compared to the 2003 levels but it could be another costly weekend for Mulholland

A link to Andy Mendlowitz’s book and the chapter The Gamble can be found here on page 129: http://books.google.ie/books?id=knXXeYS0aIwC&pg=PA130&lpg=PA130&dq=kilnadeema+leitrim+2003+mulhollands&source=bl&ots=KxvNaffFr9&sig=Nipl-L0qB5YhAOIpy5_YO6lTUvw&hl=en&sa=X&ei=8A7yUouZMeWQ7AaZ14CgDQ&ved=0CCwQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=kilnadeema%20leitrim%202003%20mulhollands&f=false

All Ireland Football Preview 2013

The Short Road to Croker for Dublin

Dublin look so hungry for Sam Maguire this year that they’ve been taking bites out of the current All Ireland champions. At 5/2, Dublin are most pundits tip for the top, they have a huge panel, a title already under their belt and look 2 months ahead of the opposition fitness wise. Only fifteen can start though and Dublin could wilt under the favourite’s tag? Its Jim Gavin’s rookie season and I fancy they’ll come up just short in September.

It’s their year
 Another rookie manager, Eamonn Fitzmaurice hasn’t the class at his disposal to replace Kerry’s ageing stars. Rivals Cork have taken a walk in the betting after a poor National League and losing Colm O Neill for the season. They look too big at 6/1 as it’s hard not seeing them making another semi final but they lack that top gear and will fall to Dublin in the semi finals. Donegal versus Tyrone is the marquee game early in the championship and the winner should go onto win Ulster, meet Mayo in the semis and will be expected to make the final. No team in the modern era has defended the title except Kerry and that was with two different managers in 2007/2008 and with men like Karl Lacey, Mark McHugh and Neil Gallagher either coming back from injuries or carrying knocks, I cannot back Donegal for a repeat until they come through this match. Mayo is my bold tip and one that I can expect to be crucified for. Again I’d hold off backing them until after the meeting of potential banana skin Galway but if they do not win in Salthill, Roscommon nor Sligo will stop them for 3 Connacht titles in a row. The last time they did that was 1951. If it’s a nice quarter final draw they’ll have the game now to beat Donegal or Tyrone in the semi finals before defeating Dublin in the final to claim their first all Ireland since 1951.
Betting 5/2 Dublin, 9/2 Kerry, Donegal, 11/2, Cork, 10/1 Mayo, Tyrone, 50/1 Galway

John Mulholland is offering an exclusive bet for his customers in all his shops. Can you predict the 8 Quarter Finalists. Last season 7 of the 8 Division One teams made it along with the Division Two champions. Who are your eight sides this season at 16/1

All Ireland football final Preview 2012 Donegal v Mayo

Jimmy’s winning matches, Rorys Kavanaghs belly is ready to burst and Pat Spillane’s is still bruised from the digs he took on the Jones Road. There is a lot of hype and superfluous coverage of Donegal’s road to Croker and Mayo fans seem to be delighted to see another county go nuts approaching the big day while their own county seems to have a more subdued build up this year.

Back in May I tipped up the first All Ireland final between  Ulster & Connacht since 1948. However I was a few miles out selecting Tyrone over my own Donegal to meet Mayo in the final. My original synopsis was that Donegal, albeit defensively superb lacked a few more scorers to take the weight of McFadden & Murphy’s shoulders. It has to be said right from the get go against Cavan, this Donegal side showed far more variety to last seasons  with scorers come from everywhere on the park and by the time Donegal met my own pre tournament selection Tyrone, I could begin to dream about Donegal going all the way if they swatted aside Mickey Harte’s men for a second successive year in Ulster. Since then Donegal have gone from strength to strength destroying Down before beating the heavyweights of Munster Kerry and Cork with a greater manner of ease than 2 point wins would indicate. All this has brought Donegal into this All Ireland as raging favourites. Can they now live up to the plaudits of Joe Brolly and co?

Mayo have not surprised me one iota this season and there is no fluke about their run to the 23^rd. They destroyed Down too  and the fact both sides hammered the 2010 runners up has been taken with a grain of salt. It shouldn’t be for although Down are badly missing the likes of Marty Clarke, they are still a top 8 side in the country and put it up to both sides for large spells before being completely overrun. Mayo’s win against Dublin was simply breathtaking for the first 50 minutes with even rival manager Jim McGuiness admitting they looked unplayable. Donegal and Dublin are tactically very similar but Dublin were missing one component that it’s hard to see Donegal missing on Sunday: Hunger. Dublin’s gameplan is all about work rate and intensity and if the hunger is not there to apply it, they look ordinary which they have done this season. Dublin did get into a rhythm late on when it looked like Mayo’s incredible work rate seemed to leave the tank empty and the players were out on their feet from the 60^th minute. When Bernard Brogan was one on one with the David Clarke, a more confident Brogan would have slotted it home and Dublin would have went on to win the match. As it was Clarke stayed large and Brogan struck it straight at him.

There are a lot of similarities between Donegal and Mayo. Both sides are in their second year with McGuiness and Horan. Both sides are beaten semi finalists from last season and back to back provincial champions. They both put an emphasis on the collective over the individual and have seen big stars drop out of the panel in Cassidy & Mortimer. They are both genuine top 4 sides who showed no luck in getting to this final and could be argued are genuinely the best two sides in the country right now.


The Curse of 51
Mayo still have four lads remaining from that panel that lifted Sam 61 years ago and unless 4 big pillows come in the middle of the night, Mayo are still supposedly destined to not win on Sunday. Mayo have lost the last 4 finals to sides in yellow and green and the last time it was an Ulster Connacht final, Mayo lost that too. We can also throw in the fact Donegal beat Mayo the last time they met in the 2007 League final and all the omens start to point to another year of hurt. But this of course is all nonsense and I really have been impressed with how James Horan has gone about his business this year. He has talked about game one of five, game two of five etc. He barely celebrated the win against Dublin while his counterpart was running onto the field like a mad loony to celebrate with his players. This is just the type of prep Mayo need and Mayo people themselves haven’t lost the run of themselves bar the odd inedible looking green and red sausages.

Where the match can be won and lost
Will Mayo change their game to combat Donegal? It didn’t work for Kerry or Cork and if Horan tries it, they’ll be dead in the water. What impressed me most in the semis was the quality of some of Mayo’s scores. They were scoring points having shaken off multiple Dublin defenders, exactly like they will come up against Donegal.  When playing Down they showed a real eye for goal as well and this is an area Donegal can be exploited against. Down showed in the Ulster final that by running straight at them down the middle at pace, you can open up gaps. Down only came away with 2 points on those two goal opportunities but Mayo will be more clinical. Donegal are rightfully favourites on Sunday but one market they should not be favourite is the 1st team to score a goal market. Donegal scored a lucky goal against Kerry and never really looked like scoring a goal against Cork. Mayo will look to score a goal in 1^st half whether they are behind, level or in front and hoping to create daylight between them. All in all I expect Mayo to have at least two cracks at a goal before Donegal attempt one and in my humble opinion, this is the type of market that is priced based on match odds rather than actual probability. John Mulholland  is going money back if Mayo win on first/last goalscorers so perhaps punters should look for even bigger odds by selecting the actual player to put the ball in net.  Looking at Mayo’s forwards and thinking about how the goal will develop, Michael Conry would be my choice at 12/1.

I have heard my own Donegal compared to many teams like Armagh 02, Tyrone 03-08 even compared to other sports teams like Barcelona but I like the comparison with one of the stars of 2012, Usain Bolt. Donegal are just like the Jamaican in Green and Gold. They start slow, put the game to bed in the middle and slow down at the finish when victory looks assured. I expect this game will be very tight for large spells, Mayo to lead at half time, Donegal to come back strong from 35 minutes  to 55 minutes and take a hold of the game while Mayo will come back with a late rattle but go down fighting by 1-3 points. I could have the green and gold tinted glassed on however so the bet I’d most recommend would be there to be less than 3 points in the match come the final whistle

Recommendations for bets

5 Points: Mayo to score 1^st goal of game @6/4
3 Points. There to be less than 3 points in the game @ 8/11
1 point: Michael Conroy to score 1^st goal 10/1(money back if Mayo win) @ 12/1
1 Point: Mayo to lead at Half time, Donegal to win at Full time @ 9/2
Prices subject to change