Jimmy’s winning matches, Rorys Kavanaghs belly is ready to
burst and Pat Spillane’s is still bruised from the digs he took on the Jones
Road. There is a lot of hype and superfluous coverage of Donegal’s road to
Croker and Mayo fans seem to be delighted to see another county go nuts
approaching the big day while their own county seems to have a more subdued
build up this year.
Back in May I tipped up the first All Ireland final between Ulster & Connacht since 1948. However I was a few miles out selecting Tyrone over my own Donegal to meet Mayo in the final. My original synopsis was that Donegal, albeit defensively superb lacked a few more scorers to take the weight of McFadden & Murphy’s shoulders. It has to be said right from the get go against Cavan, this Donegal side showed far more variety to last seasons with scorers come from everywhere on the park and by the time Donegal met my own pre tournament selection Tyrone, I could begin to dream about Donegal going all the way if they swatted aside Mickey Harte’s men for a second successive year in Ulster. Since then Donegal have gone from strength to strength destroying Down before beating the heavyweights of Munster Kerry and Cork with a greater manner of ease than 2 point wins would indicate. All this has brought Donegal into this All Ireland as raging favourites. Can they now live up to the plaudits of Joe Brolly and co?
Mayo have not surprised me one iota this season and there is no fluke about their run to the 23rd. They destroyed Down too and the fact both sides hammered the 2010 runners up has been taken with a grain of salt. It shouldn’t be for although Down are badly missing the likes of Marty Clarke, they are still a top 8 side in the country and put it up to both sides for large spells before being completely overrun. Mayo’s win against Dublin was simply breathtaking for the first 50 minutes with even rival manager Jim McGuiness admitting they looked unplayable. Donegal and Dublin are tactically very similar but Dublin were missing one component that it’s hard to see Donegal missing on Sunday: Hunger. Dublin’s gameplan is all about work rate and intensity and if the hunger is not there to apply it, they look ordinary which they have done this season. Dublin did get into a rhythm late on when it looked like Mayo’s incredible work rate seemed to leave the tank empty and the players were out on their feet from the 60th minute. When Bernard Brogan was one on one with the David Clarke, a more confident Brogan would have slotted it home and Dublin would have went on to win the match. As it was Clarke stayed large and Brogan struck it straight at him.
There are a lot of similarities between Donegal and Mayo. Both sides are in their second year with McGuiness and Horan. Both sides are beaten semi finalists from last season and back to back provincial champions. They both put an emphasis on the collective over the individual and have seen big stars drop out of the panel in Cassidy & Mortimer. They are both genuine top 4 sides who showed no luck in getting to this final and could be argued are genuinely the best two sides in the country right now.
The Curse of 51
Mayo still have four lads remaining from that panel that lifted Sam 61 years ago and unless 4 big
pillows come in the middle of the night, Mayo are still supposedly
destined to not win on Sunday. Mayo have lost the last 4 finals to sides in
yellow and green and the last time it was an Ulster Connacht final, Mayo lost
that too. We can also throw in the fact Donegal beat Mayo the last time they
met in the 2007 League final and all the omens start to point to another year
of hurt. But this of course is all nonsense and I really have been impressed
with how James Horan has gone about his business this year. He has talked about
game one of five, game two of five etc. He barely celebrated the win against
Dublin while his counterpart was running onto the field like a mad loony to
celebrate with his players. This is just the type of prep Mayo need and Mayo
people themselves haven’t lost the run of themselves bar the odd inedible
looking green and red sausages.
Where the match can be won and lost
Will Mayo change their game to combat Donegal? It didn’t work for Kerry or Cork and if Horan tries it, they’ll be dead in the water. What impressed me most in the semis was the quality of some of Mayo’s scores. They were scoring points having shaken off multiple Dublin defenders, exactly like they will come up against Donegal. When playing Down they showed a real eye for goal as well and this is an area Donegal can be exploited against. Down showed in the Ulster final that by running straight at them down the middle at pace, you can open up gaps. Down only came away with 2 points on those two goal opportunities but Mayo will be more clinical. Donegal are rightfully favourites on Sunday but one market they should not be favourite is the 1st team to score a goal market. Donegal scored a lucky goal against Kerry and never really looked like scoring a goal against Cork. Mayo will look to score a goal in 1st half whether they are behind, level or in front and hoping to create daylight between them. All in all I expect Mayo to have at least two cracks at a goal before Donegal attempt one and in my humble opinion, this is the type of market that is priced based on match odds rather than actual probability. John Mulholland is going money back if Mayo win on first/last goalscorers so perhaps punters should look for even bigger odds by selecting the actual player to put the ball in net. Looking at Mayo’s forwards and thinking about how the goal will develop, Michael Conry would be my choice at 12/1.
I have heard my own Donegal compared to many teams like Armagh 02, Tyrone 03-08 even compared to other sports teams like Barcelona but I like the comparison with one of the stars of 2012, Usain Bolt. Donegal are just like the Jamaican in Green and Gold. They start slow, put the game to bed in the middle and slow down at the finish when victory looks assured. I expect this game will be very tight for large spells, Mayo to lead at half time, Donegal to come back strong from 35 minutes to 55 minutes and take a hold of the game while Mayo will come back with a late rattle but go down fighting by 1-3 points. I could have the green and gold tinted glassed on however so the bet I’d most recommend would be there to be less than 3 points in the match come the final whistle
Recommendations for bets
5 Points: Mayo to score 1st goal of game @6/4
3 Points. There to be less than 3 points in the game @ 8/11
1 point: Michael Conroy to score 1st goal 10/1(money back if Mayo win) @ 12/1
1 Point: Mayo to lead at Half time, Donegal to win at Full time @ 9/2
Prices subject to change
Back in May I tipped up the first All Ireland final between Ulster & Connacht since 1948. However I was a few miles out selecting Tyrone over my own Donegal to meet Mayo in the final. My original synopsis was that Donegal, albeit defensively superb lacked a few more scorers to take the weight of McFadden & Murphy’s shoulders. It has to be said right from the get go against Cavan, this Donegal side showed far more variety to last seasons with scorers come from everywhere on the park and by the time Donegal met my own pre tournament selection Tyrone, I could begin to dream about Donegal going all the way if they swatted aside Mickey Harte’s men for a second successive year in Ulster. Since then Donegal have gone from strength to strength destroying Down before beating the heavyweights of Munster Kerry and Cork with a greater manner of ease than 2 point wins would indicate. All this has brought Donegal into this All Ireland as raging favourites. Can they now live up to the plaudits of Joe Brolly and co?
Mayo have not surprised me one iota this season and there is no fluke about their run to the 23rd. They destroyed Down too and the fact both sides hammered the 2010 runners up has been taken with a grain of salt. It shouldn’t be for although Down are badly missing the likes of Marty Clarke, they are still a top 8 side in the country and put it up to both sides for large spells before being completely overrun. Mayo’s win against Dublin was simply breathtaking for the first 50 minutes with even rival manager Jim McGuiness admitting they looked unplayable. Donegal and Dublin are tactically very similar but Dublin were missing one component that it’s hard to see Donegal missing on Sunday: Hunger. Dublin’s gameplan is all about work rate and intensity and if the hunger is not there to apply it, they look ordinary which they have done this season. Dublin did get into a rhythm late on when it looked like Mayo’s incredible work rate seemed to leave the tank empty and the players were out on their feet from the 60th minute. When Bernard Brogan was one on one with the David Clarke, a more confident Brogan would have slotted it home and Dublin would have went on to win the match. As it was Clarke stayed large and Brogan struck it straight at him.
There are a lot of similarities between Donegal and Mayo. Both sides are in their second year with McGuiness and Horan. Both sides are beaten semi finalists from last season and back to back provincial champions. They both put an emphasis on the collective over the individual and have seen big stars drop out of the panel in Cassidy & Mortimer. They are both genuine top 4 sides who showed no luck in getting to this final and could be argued are genuinely the best two sides in the country right now.
The Curse of 51
Mayo still have four lads remaining from that panel that lifted Sam 61 years ago and unless 4 big
pillows come in the middle of the night, Mayo are still supposedly
destined to not win on Sunday. Mayo have lost the last 4 finals to sides in
yellow and green and the last time it was an Ulster Connacht final, Mayo lost
that too. We can also throw in the fact Donegal beat Mayo the last time they
met in the 2007 League final and all the omens start to point to another year
of hurt. But this of course is all nonsense and I really have been impressed
with how James Horan has gone about his business this year. He has talked about
game one of five, game two of five etc. He barely celebrated the win against
Dublin while his counterpart was running onto the field like a mad loony to
celebrate with his players. This is just the type of prep Mayo need and Mayo
people themselves haven’t lost the run of themselves bar the odd inedible
looking green and red sausages.
Where the match can be won and lostWill Mayo change their game to combat Donegal? It didn’t work for Kerry or Cork and if Horan tries it, they’ll be dead in the water. What impressed me most in the semis was the quality of some of Mayo’s scores. They were scoring points having shaken off multiple Dublin defenders, exactly like they will come up against Donegal. When playing Down they showed a real eye for goal as well and this is an area Donegal can be exploited against. Down showed in the Ulster final that by running straight at them down the middle at pace, you can open up gaps. Down only came away with 2 points on those two goal opportunities but Mayo will be more clinical. Donegal are rightfully favourites on Sunday but one market they should not be favourite is the 1st team to score a goal market. Donegal scored a lucky goal against Kerry and never really looked like scoring a goal against Cork. Mayo will look to score a goal in 1st half whether they are behind, level or in front and hoping to create daylight between them. All in all I expect Mayo to have at least two cracks at a goal before Donegal attempt one and in my humble opinion, this is the type of market that is priced based on match odds rather than actual probability. John Mulholland is going money back if Mayo win on first/last goalscorers so perhaps punters should look for even bigger odds by selecting the actual player to put the ball in net. Looking at Mayo’s forwards and thinking about how the goal will develop, Michael Conry would be my choice at 12/1.
I have heard my own Donegal compared to many teams like Armagh 02, Tyrone 03-08 even compared to other sports teams like Barcelona but I like the comparison with one of the stars of 2012, Usain Bolt. Donegal are just like the Jamaican in Green and Gold. They start slow, put the game to bed in the middle and slow down at the finish when victory looks assured. I expect this game will be very tight for large spells, Mayo to lead at half time, Donegal to come back strong from 35 minutes to 55 minutes and take a hold of the game while Mayo will come back with a late rattle but go down fighting by 1-3 points. I could have the green and gold tinted glassed on however so the bet I’d most recommend would be there to be less than 3 points in the match come the final whistle
Recommendations for bets
5 Points: Mayo to score 1st goal of game @6/4
3 Points. There to be less than 3 points in the game @ 8/11
1 point: Michael Conroy to score 1st goal 10/1(money back if Mayo win) @ 12/1
1 Point: Mayo to lead at Half time, Donegal to win at Full time @ 9/2
Prices subject to change
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